StarLadder Budapest Major 2025 Pick'Ems Predictions
A diamond coin needs 5+ correct picks in each Swiss stage, 2 correct quarterfinals, 1 semifinal, and the grand-final winner.
Bronze 1–3 · Silver 4–7 · Gold 8–10 · Diamond all 11 challenges
Luz's Picks
LEG ✗ 
FAZ ✗ 
B8 ✓ 
GAM ✗ 
FNA ✓ 
PAR ✓ 
NIN ✓ 
M80 ✗ 
RAR ✓ 
THE ✗ marginals
The supercomputer's per-team probabilities across the Swiss bracket.
| team | qualify | 3-0 | 3-1 | 3-2 | 0-3 | eliminated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legacy | 90.6% | 36.4% | 35.2% | 19.0% | 1.0% | 9.3% |
| FaZe | 88.4% | 34.3% | 34.2% | 19.9% | 1.2% | 11.6% |
| GamerLegion | 79.6% | 25.5% | 30.7% | 23.4% | 2.0% | 20.4% |
| B8 | 75.8% | 19.8% | 30.5% | 25.5% | 3.2% | 24.2% |
| PARIVISION | 65.1% | 16.9% | 24.5% | 23.7% | 3.4% | 34.9% |
| Fnatic | 64.9% | 16.0% | 24.8% | 24.2% | 4.2% | 35.1% |
| Ninjas in Pyjamas | 59.3% | 12.8% | 22.4% | 24.1% | 5.4% | 40.7% |
| M80 | 51.6% | 8.3% | 19.7% | 23.6% | 8.9% | 48.4% |
 Imperial | 49.6% | 10.2% | 18.4% | 21.0% | 6.6% | 50.4% |
 FlyQuest | 44.9% | 5.2% | 16.7% | 23.0% | 12.1% | 55.1% |
 Lynn Vision | 36.4% | 4.1% | 13.1% | 19.2% | 16.0% | 63.6% |
 NRG Esports | 25.8% | 3.3% | 8.1% | 14.4% | 19.6% | 74.2% |
 Fluxo | 25.1% | 2.4% | 8.3% | 14.3% | 22.0% | 74.9% |
 RED Canids | 23.4% | 2.7% | 7.6% | 13.1% | 21.7% | 76.6% |
| Rare Atom | 10.2% | 1.0% | 3.1% | 6.0% | 34.9% | 89.8% |
| The Huns | 9.4% | 0.9% | 2.9% | 5.6% | 37.7% | 90.6% |
Luz's Picks
AUR ✗ 
NAT ✓ 
TEA ✓ FAZ ✗ 
AST ✗ B8 ✓ PAR ✓ FNA ✗ 
MIB ✓ 
TYL ✗ marginals
The supercomputer's per-team probabilities across the Swiss bracket.
| team | qualify | 3-0 | 3-1 | 3-2 | 0-3 | eliminated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora | 87.1% | 35.6% | 32.7% | 18.8% | 1.7% | 12.9% |
| Natus Vincere | 82.0% | 29.5% | 31.4% | 21.1% | 2.5% | 18.0% |
| Astralis | 70.7% | 19.8% | 27.6% | 23.3% | 4.8% | 29.4% |
| Team Liquid | 69.6% | 18.1% | 27.1% | 24.4% | 5.3% | 30.4% |
| FaZe | 67.9% | 19.6% | 25.9% | 22.4% | 4.8% | 32.1% |
 3DMAX | 54.5% | 11.9% | 20.3% | 22.3% | 9.5% | 45.5% |
| B8 | 53.8% | 10.8% | 21.0% | 22.1% | 10.3% | 46.2% |
| PARIVISION | 50.5% | 11.7% | 19.2% | 19.6% | 8.9% | 49.5% |
| Fnatic | 42.5% | 7.9% | 15.6% | 19.0% | 13.4% | 57.5% |
| Ninjas in Pyjamas | 39.7% | 7.0% | 14.5% | 18.3% | 16.3% | 60.3% |
| M80 | 36.9% | 5.3% | 13.5% | 18.2% | 18.8% | 63.1% |
 Passion UA | 34.3% | 4.9% | 12.5% | 16.9% | 19.3% | 65.8% |
| FlyQuest | 33.8% | 5.2% | 11.8% | 16.8% | 20.0% | 66.2% |
| TYLOO | 31.5% | 5.0% | 11.3% | 15.3% | 20.3% | 68.5% |
| Imperial | 25.1% | 4.6% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 18.2% | 74.9% |
| MIBR | 20.2% | 3.3% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 25.7% | 79.8% |
Luz's Picks
FUR ✓ 
VIT ✗ 
MOU ✓ 
SPI ✗ 
FAL ✓ NAT ✓ 
MON ✓ 
G2 ✗ IMP ✗ PAS ✗ marginals
The supercomputer's per-team probabilities across the Swiss bracket.
| team | qualify | 3-0 | 3-1 | 3-2 | 0-3 | eliminated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FURIA | 96.3% | 43.4% | 38.0% | 14.8% | 2.4% | 3.7% |
| Vitality | 95.2% | 43.3% | 36.8% | 15.2% | 3.2% | 4.8% |
| Falcons | 92.4% | 36.3% | 37.1% | 19.1% | 4.9% | 7.6% |
| MOUZ | 83.4% | 23.9% | 35.2% | 24.3% | 10.4% | 16.7% |
| Spirit | 68.8% | 12.8% | 27.1% | 28.8% | 16.9% | 31.2% |
| MongolZ | 54.4% | 9.4% | 20.2% | 24.9% | 24.0% | 45.6% |
| Natus Vincere | 53.8% | 4.9% | 20.7% | 28.2% | 20.4% | 46.2% |
| G2 | 53.7% | 8.4% | 19.9% | 25.4% | 23.8% | 46.4% |
| Team Liquid | 37.4% | 3.6% | 12.6% | 21.3% | 25.5% | 62.6% |
 paiN | 33.3% | 3.8% | 11.2% | 18.4% | 27.0% | 66.7% |
| FaZe | 31.7% | 2.0% | 10.6% | 19.1% | 23.9% | 68.3% |
| 3DMAX | 29.6% | 3.4% | 9.7% | 16.5% | 28.5% | 70.4% |
| B8 | 23.4% | 1.4% | 7.1% | 14.8% | 23.4% | 76.6% |
| PARIVISION | 20.9% | 1.5% | 6.3% | 13.1% | 22.8% | 79.1% |
| Passion UA | 17.2% | 1.4% | 5.0% | 10.8% | 24.3% | 82.8% |
| Imperial | 8.7% | 0.6% | 2.6% | 5.5% | 18.6% | 91.3% |
playoffs bracket
Spirit Falcons ✗ Vitality ✓ MongolZ FURIA ✗ Natus Vincere MOUZ ✗ FaZe Falcons Vitality ✓ FURIA ✗ MOUZ Vitality FURIA ✗ FURIA 2 / 7 picks correct Spirit 36.8% Falcons 63.3% Vitality 76.0% MongolZ 24.0% FURIA 78.9% Natus Vincere 21.1% MOUZ 69.2% FaZe 30.8% Falcons 23.1% Vitality 58.7% FURIA 57.9% MOUZ 24.8% Vitality 34.4% FURIA 34.4% FURIA 34.4% to win it all Spirit 2 Falcons 0 Vitality 2 MongolZ 0 FURIA 1 Natus Vincere 2 MOUZ 0 FaZe 2 Spirit 0 Vitality 2 Natus Vincere 1 FaZe 2 Vitality 3 FaZe 1 Vitality defeated FaZe 3–1 in the grand final pre-playoff model odds
What the supercomputer projected going into the bracket. It favoured FURIA (34.4% to win it all); Vitality (34.4%) took the title instead.
| team | reach semis | reach final | champion |
|---|---|---|---|
| FURIA | 78.9% | 57.9% | 34.4% |
| Vitality | 76.0% | 58.7% | 34.4% |
| MOUZ | 69.2% | 24.8% | 10.5% |
| Falcons | 63.2% | 23.1% | 10.3% |
| Spirit | 36.8% | 11.4% | 4.4% |
| MongolZ | 24.0% | 11.2% | 3.0% |
| FaZe | 30.8% | 5.3% | 1.1% |
| Natus Vincere | 21.1% | 7.6% | 1.9% |
pre-playoff championship odds
FURIA Vitality MOUZ Falcons Spirit MongolZ FaZe Natus Vincere Major Supercomputer is my Counter-Strike 2 Major Pick'Ems prediction model. It rates every team, simulates each Swiss stage and the playoffs thousands of times, and turns the results into recommended picks along with each team's chances of going 3-0, advancing, or going 0-3. It has scored a gold coin or higher on each of the last 10 Majors, and on every Major it has tracked live it has finished within 8.3% of a diamond coin.
Predictions are probabilistic estimates, not guarantees or betting advice. Past results don't predict future ones. I work for HLTV, but this is a personal project and not affiliated with Valve or any tournament organiser.
team logos via liquipedia.